2010 Blazer Preview

2011 Blazer Preview

The 2011 Blazer season has started out much like the entire 2010 played itself out. The team we watched one day, changes dramatically before you can even begin to dissect what you have. As much as I have disliked Nate McMillan’s way of coaching the last 5 years, the fact that he didn’t win Coach of the Year last year, has to be one of the most absurd things the NBA has seen in a long time. He took a team that was destroyed by injuries to 50 wins and forced a very good Phoenix team to 6 games in the playoffs. Out of a possible 984 games (82x12 man roster) the Blazers lost 311 games due to injuries. You can survive that if your 10th, 11th and 12th men are the ones missing most of the games; not when your 2 centers (Oden/Pryzbilla), starting SG (Roy), starting SF (Batum), backup SF/PF (Outlaw), and backup SG (Rudy) are lost for some of, or all in Oden and Przbilla’s case, the season. Last year the Blazers used 16 different starting lineups. That’s a new starting lineup about every 5 or 6 games. Know what happens when you have to use 16 different starting lineups? Guys who should never (and probably never will again) start an NBA game, end up having to start games. Guys like Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham had flashes that they could be serviceable NBA players but no one is going to win a championship with those guys playing big minutes. When you look at the total numbers it give’s you an idea of how crazy it was that the Blazers won 50 games and made the playoffs.

The team the Blazers have this year looks nothing like the team that started 2009 with so much hope and promise. We aren’t coming back full strength. Pryzbilla is going to miss most of November and Oden won’t be back until December. Outlaw, Webster and Blake are gone. Camby is our only guy who is going to get a rebound for the first month of the season. Pendergraph hurt his ACL and then got cut. The team has 3 rookies, 2 who could see regular playing time (Babbitt and Johnson), Bayless got traded 2 days before the season starts and we paid twice as much as anyone else was offering for an undrafted rookie (Wesley Matthews..more on him in a minute) who had a solid but not spectacular rookie season in Utah. Honestly, I don’t know if I can talk myself into this team this year (obviously I can and will, but just humor me), so I’ve decided to look at the glass half full and the glass half empty before I decide. Both are dissected below.

Glass Half Full

1. Health. Ideally, instead of starting the season healthy and then getting hurt, we’ll start the season hurt and get healthy as it goes along. It makes me smile to think of running out 4 guys (Aldridge, Oden, Pryzbilla and Camby) who are 6’11” +. Who knows…we might see some short stretched where Aldridge plays the 3, Camby at the 4 and Oden/Pryzbilla at the 5. Tell me there is a team in the NBA who can match up with that size.

2. Experience. Brandon and Miller have had a chance to play together for (most of) a year and will have learned how to play off each other better. The key guys have another year of playing in the post season. Neither Brandon or LaMarcus have their contract situation hanging over their head, and no more front office rumors, the Blazers should be able to take a step in the right direction.

3. Marcus Camby for a full season. What’s great about Camby is he does a little bit of everything. And the thought of Greg Oden learning how to play defense from Camby should terrify every guard in the NBA because they might never get to the rim against Portland again.

4. Wesley Matthews. Over the summer when I kept reading that the guy that everyone on the Blazers couldn’t stop talking about was Matthews, I wondered if that was because he impressed them with his play or if they just couldn't believe that he’s getting paid $5.7 million this year. Turns out, it was because of how good he is (I hope).

5. Set rotation. With Bayless gone, there is a defined guard rotation this year. Going into last season, nobody knew if Miller and Roy would play together, how Rudy and Bayless fit into the mix, how Blake would take coming off the bench (eventually after Nate decided to start Miller after about 10 games), or who would be the backup point guard (remember there as talk of trading Bayless before LAST season). Now, Brandon and Andre can start but don’t be surprised to see Brandon and Matthews play a lot together and Miller and Rudy play a lot together.

Glass Half Empty

1. Injuries. How could this not be #1? The fact that I have to lead with “IF, and it’s a big IF ________ can stay healthy” for 5 of our key players (#1 Oden, #2 Pryzbilla, #3 Brandon, #4 Rudy, #5 Batum) it can’t be a good sign. All 5 of those guys had surgery in the last 11 months. That’s a little terrifying.

2. Nate McMillen. I can’t say I’m looking forward to watching the most boring offense in the NBA for another year. From my observation it appears that McMillen is the only coach in the NBA who forces his players to play a style of play they don’t really like., rather then coaching to his teams strengths. He treats the players like kids, and he needed a profanity laced screaming match with Andre Miller to motivate his team last year. Could this be the year the Blazers quit on him? I hope not but it wouldn’t shock me.

3. Chemistry. 2 years ago, all anyone could talk about was how great of friends all the guys on the team were. Now? It’s been pretty well documented that Brandon and Andre don’t really love each other. Outlaw, who was everyone’s best friend on the team, got traded and the guy that got the team fired up before every game last season (Pendergraph) is gone. Does this team have good chemistry? Do they like each other? How will these rookies fit into this now veteran heavy team? I guess we’ll see over the next 7 months.

4. Greg Oden. I already mentioned injuries but Oden worries me. How is his mental state? Remember that he went to a psychiatrist after his first knee injury because he wasn’t mentally right. I hope that’s all behind him and he can truly believe he isn’t “injury prone” and that these 2 injuries were it for him, but that’s a big hill to climb.

5. Pressure. This is a big season for the Blazers. They’ve made it to the playoffs two years in a row. They went out and got veterans to play with the team. They’ve drafted well, acquired assets (young guys, draft picks, trade exceptions). Pressure’s on. The National media is giving Portland some love (I’ve seen a couple of people pick the Blazers to finish 3rd in the West), Vegas put the Over/Under win total at 52. Those are high expectations to begin with, then play in Portland where the Blazers are in a fish bowl, these are the highest expectations this team has ever had and it will be interesting to see if they can live up to it after a crazy offseason.

What’s great about sports is, generally speaking, you can look at the team from last year and talk yourself into the season by saying things like, “OK, we’re healthy now, we’re a year older with more experience, we brought in Player X, we can win it all this year if……” fill in each teams weakness and you’ve got yourself the sports fan’s ability to believe anything they want. I’ve done this for years. Not only with the Blazers but with the Mariners, Huskies, Zags, and Seahawks. Actual sentence I said this spring “If Milton Bradley can hit, with the Mariner pitching, we should win the West.” I believed this so much I actually bet a friend of mine a keg that the Mariners would finish above .500. April 1st, I would have done that trade 1000 times out of 1000. By June 1st, the Mariners were 19-31 and all but out of the AL West race. My buddy started planning the keg party in early June. If there was something more depressing than watching the Mariners lose game after game this year it was hearing my friend talk about the plans for the keg.

Do the Blazers have a lot of hurdles to get over? Yes, no question. Do they have the talent to take the next step and become a legitimate threat to win the Western Conference? Remains to be seen. Do I think they can win it all? Sure. Do I think they will? Probably not, but ask me a week from now and if the Blazers are 3-0 I might answer differently. It’s important to remember that these Blazers are going to get better as the year goes on. They’ll get healthier; they’ll get more comfortable playing together; I think Wes Matthews is going to be really good and I think Brandon has finally realized what he has to do to be the superstar that we’ve seen growing in him for the last 4 years. He’s telling people what he wants. He wants to ball more. He’s sick of hearing things like “can Brandon play with Andre?” He’s option #1. He’s the Alpha and he’s showing it.

So this year, have I talked myself into the Blazers? Of course. Will I watch every game possible? Yes. Will I use the word “we” when I talk about the Blazers? Yes I will. Am I excited for the season? As excited as I can ever remember for an NBA season. After last year, I can’t imagine anything as depressing watching Blazer after Blazer go down to injury, then again, most of those NBA “experts” have Durant winning the MVP and the Thunder finishing second in the West, so……..off to get a prescription for Prozac.

Final Prediction:

Record 54-28 4th in the West

Playoffs: Win 1st Rd with home court advantage; lose in the 2nd round.

Go Blazers!

March Madness

When I was 11, my mom came home from school with an NCAA Tournament Bracket and asked if I'd fill it out for her. Her school had an office pool and she had no interest or knowledge of college basketball and thought maybe a pint-sized version of myself would have better luck filling out a winning or at least competitive bracket, than she would. I remember 3 things from filling out that bracket:
#1: My mother required that I pick her alma mater, the #14 seed University of Portland, to win at least one game. Knowing little to nothing at the time of the NCAA Tourney, I agreed and 3 days later watched Portland get throttled by #3 Villanova by 34 points.
#2: Against my father’s advice, I picked #12 Drexel to upset the #5 seed Memphis Tigers. Why did I pick Drexel? At age 11, I knew virtually nothing about college basketball, but I knew that my favorite NBA player was named Clyde “The Glide” Drexler, and Drexel and Drexler sounded similar so I went with it. I liked “The Glide” so much, that I took Drexel to win not only their first round game but also their second round game. I remember this because Drexel beat Memphis and my dad came home and was shocked that I had picked it correctly. Going into the 2nd round game, I didn’t think there was any chance Drexel would lose. If I had known at the time that you could actually bet on sports, I would have put all of my paper route money that I had in the bank, (maybe $50) on Drexel to win that second round game. What happened? They lost to eventual national champion runner up Syracuse by 11.
#3: It was because I filled out that bracket, and got to follow along as the tournament went, that I fell in love with NCAA basketball. 48 games during the 4 days of the opening weekend? Yes please. 12 games of the most competitive, exciting basketball, with moments like this during the 2nd weekend? You betcha! 3 games in 1 city, with all 4 teams 2 wins away from immortality? There is no compassion in the sporting world, or any other aspect of daily life (except maybe a beer pong tournament, which coincidently also uses a bracket formula). Two years later, my college decision was made for me when Gonzaga made one of the more improbable runs in NCAA Tourney history (as seen in the link above), and my life has never been the same. Every March, my opinion changes roughly 865,000 times, on how Gonzaga will fare in the tournament, and when the time comes to fill out my bracket, I will almost always let my heart take over on at least one of my brackets and have Gonzaga going deep in the tournament. Does this make sense? Not really. Every year when I have the Zags making a run into the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 (or even the Final 4), it makes their eventual loss suck just that much more. Not only is my favorite college basketball team out of the tournament (almost always to a team that I have talked myself into us beating), but my bracket is all but shot. Would it make it sweeter if someday the Zags do make a deep run and I have it correctly in my bracket? Of course. Does that mean I’ll do it again this year? Probably. But you should know that as I’m doing it, I will be shaking my head asking myself why.
11 years ago when I filled out my first bracket, I picked teams because I liked their names or because my Mom went to school there. Today, I spend an unhealthy amount of time researching FG% and Free Throws per possession to determine my picks. Has it helped? Hell no. I have never won a bracket pool. I’ve been in pools with 10 people and I’ve been in pools with 300 people, but the result is always the same. Me=not winning.
The NCAA tourney isn’t like any other sporting event in America. You have good athletes competing for immortality, and with “no monetary gain.” No team can coast through the tournament and to win it all, you have to get some breaks and have some bounces go your way, or you’re not winning. Oddly enough, you have to have the same luck to win your friendly pool. I filled out my first bracket 11 years ago and I didn’t win. I still have never won a bracket challenge and have no idea what it feels like. I didn’t play college sports, and I played high school sports poorly and have no idea what it feels like to win a tournament, but I have an idea that, for myself, winning a bracket pool would be as close to that feeling as I will ever achieve.

Until next time……

Judge Jury and Joe

Hello again Blogosphere,

Inspired by my cousin Martha (weareemar.blogspot.com), I have decided to re-enter the world of blogging and let the world in on my opinions about current events and random thoughts. I won't pretend that this won't eventually (quickly) turn into a blog consisting of rants/outbursts stemming from being a tortured Blazers, Gonzaga, and Mariners fan, but I will do my best to include some entries about other current events and things that bother me. I also can't promise that I will update this religiously or on any sort of schedule. I will promise though that the more readers I get, the more often I will update.

Until next time.......